Sub-prime Attack.Banks in the United Kingdom have not yet made the write-off of the prolonged
sub-prime assets pledged by their American competitors, but they can not delay the disclosure of any loss much longer. Sean Farrell reports
Business Analysis
HSBC today the kick-off of the most eagerly awaited series of statements commercial bank in the years as investors seek reassurance that the contagion of the United States did not state a disaster for Britain's largest lenders.
HSBC is one of the first to alert the market to the looming crisis in the
sub-prime US credit market when it issued its first profit warning last December. From the bank, once incursion into profitable loans to clients at risk rockets had exploded as defects caused bad debts to jump.
HSBC should also flag devaluations of the
sub-prime fallout today, but, unless there is a huge shock, investors are likely to take the news in their stride. HSBC has stopped selling and trading US mortgage-backed securities and its shares have performed well due to the credit crunch.
The main concerns of investors in recent weeks have been Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland. These are the two British companies whose investment banking lenders and weapons rose most sharply on the back of the debt boom of recent years.
Investors were already nervous about the exposure of Barclays and RBS to the crash of the debt markets before the recent spate of statements by American banks upping their credit crunch devaluations. The huge increases in forced departures of two of the most powerful men on Wall Street
Things have come to a head of Barclays at the end of last week that rumors waved a question of rights, a $ 10bn depreciation, the Bank of England emergency funding, and the resignation of John Varley, chief the management, and Bob Diamond, the head of investment banking.
Barclays has stated publicly on Friday there was "no substance" to any of the rumors. This would once have been unusual step, but Barclays has been forced to reassure the market during the crisis credit, especially when he was rumoured to have borrowed from the Bank of England in September.
Investors' fears have mounted, in part because of lack of information. Considering that American and European rivals such as Citigroup and UBS report full quarterly results, Britain's financial giants publish their only twice a year, with the results of the next season does not begin until February.
The market will have to make do with British banks' trading statements, which appear in the coming months. Barclays is due to issue its declaration of exchange on November 27, with RBS next December 6. Despite requests from investors worried nor bank shows no sign of rapprochement statements before.
Given the record of American banks that had overwhelmingly to add to their initial estimates, it might be advisable for both Barclays and RBS to take their time and get the best possible information to investors. Both are expected to be aware of investor desire for detailed information on top of the usual coded language of trading statements.
Concerns revolve around three areas: the capital positions of banks, the scale of potential write-downs, and the loss of revenue.
Skeptics say analysts British banks' capital positions are stricter than those of many donors in the United States and Europe, as they used their own money to pay for acquisitions and have piled on assets in the investment bank that consumed the capital. With less of a buffer to absorb shocks, the pessimists say devaluations in the lower billion could force banks to raise capital.
Barclays is thought to be more prone to write-downs on complex structured credit products such as investment vehicles (SIVs) and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), which are at the heart of the market fears over banks. SIVs issue short-term debt cheaper to invest in assets such as securities backed by mortgages and CDOs invest in the different grades of debt. La banque a l'obligation d'SIVs elle a mis en place pour inciter les clients aidés rumeurs d'un manque de liquidité, ce qui a été forcée de Barclays à contrer.
RBS its exposure in the United States credit markets is mainly by RBS Greenwich Capital, a major player in the packaging and distribution of mortgage backed securities. At the bank's interim results in August, Johnny Cameron, the head of corporate and investment bank, flagged 23 percent of the decline in volumes of asset-backed securities (ABS) in the first half. This will no doubt be struck by revenue, but he Cameron also noted that the ABS represent only 1.6 percent of group revenue.
But RBS capital position seems tight. Its core tier one capital ratio was 4.7 per cent, but is expected to fall to 4.25 percent by the end of this year after paying its share of the 71bn price of ABN Amro of the Netherlands . RBS, which is close to the 4 percent that is generally accepted as a minimum.
RBS has proved to be extremely cash-generating, in the past, and can be expected to add one percentage point of the capital generated within its ratio in a particular year as he did after Purchasing NatWest in 2000. But with so many uncertainties in terms of asset value and prospects for earnings, the market was scared.
But, despite several years of strong returns, many fund managers still think the UK market is underestimated, claiming that the recent slowdown presents a strong opportunity to purchase. We asked 10 of the UK's top investment managers and stockbrokers everyone to pick their favourite summer bargains
"Royal Dutch Shell B gives me security and stability. This is not the least expensive, but the investment available, compared to other actions, it is very solid and has the ability to survive the turbulence market. valued at 10 times earnings and with a gearing ratio of 6 percent of debt to total assets, the company has sufficient funds available for investment. Natural resources have been a favorite during the recent years and it is reasonable to assume that energy prices will not fall without a speedy recovery. oil prices are sustained To a greater extent by private demand. Demand for cars in China have more than tripled in Over the last few years, and while the Chinese GDP continues to grow at a rate of 11 percent, the United States far exceeds per capita car ownership in China. If you want to sleep in peace, this is probably the most reliable in the field of investment to its current price. "
Chris Watt, director of the Jupiter Environmental Income Fund: Hydro International
"This is a stock we have held for a long period, but it is very topical given the recent weather conditions in the United Kingdom. It specializes in the control and treatment of storm water and waste using proprietary technology based on vortex. This is a good example of the type of business that interests us: small, at an early stage of its development, but has developed real traction using a unique technology in a growing market. That is why we believe it has the potential to become a major market leader. "
Trevor Green, manager of the Allianz RCM UK Mid Cap funds: Cap --
"Cape Town is an international provider of essential support services to the energy sector. It provides services such as scaffolding, insulation, fire protection and cleanup specialist for blue-chip clients, including BP, Exxon, BNFL and Scottish Power in the United Kingdom. At its recent AGM of the company was able to increase significantly its profit forecasts for the full year, which is significant to their end of the year five months. This shows the high visibility it has on its order book, and it seems likely that next year it Retournera to pay a dividend. "
Felix Wintle, manager of the Neptune US Opportunities Fund: Crocs Inc
"Crocs is the manufacturer of a shoe phenomenon. Shoes sold in more than 40 countries, are sturdy and comfortable. We discovered this stock as a result of our investment process, taking a macro view down before seeking Business. we support for more than two years, as the market for advice on the
American economy and its consumers is too bearish, Neptune has led to consider the
consumer stocks. Crocs is in the growth phase d 'a global fund for the deployment and earnings will double this year. Notre Unrealized gain so far is 83 percent. "
Henk Potts, equity strategist, Barclays Stockbrokers: British American Tobacco
"One could be forgiven for believing that the increase in smoking bans and the constant bombardment of anti-smoking ads would be bad news for the big tobacco companies. However, British American Tobacco (BAT) has recently reported the results of the first quarter, which were better than the market expectations, with the band recording double-digit profit growth. This good performance was driven by emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Africa, where cigarette sales continue to rise. BAT is very cash-generating and plans to increase its dividend by 15 Percent per annum in the next two years. BAT also plans to spend 750 [pound] stock this year. stock currently trades at 1620p - we believe that its fair value is 1780p. "
Chou Chong, director of the Dunedin Income Growth Investment Trust: Premier Foods
"Premier Foods is the largest in the United Kingdom and food company owns brands such as Branston and Crosse & Blackwell. It has recently added to its portfolio Batchelors in 2007 and early acquired RHM, whose brands include Hovis and Bisto. We are confident Prime Minister will be able To extract considerable production costs and synergies of the acquisition of RHM, refreshments and newly acquired brands such as RHM of Bisto and Mr. Kipling. shares are trading at about 12 times estimated 2008 earnings, the stock and also offers investors a dividend yield of 5.2 percent. "
George Finlay, one of the fund's managers Marlborough Special Situations: Hamworthy
"Hamworthy calls because it ticks all the boxes we love. This is a niche business providing products essential to global security growing businesses, shipbuilding and LNG (liquefied natural gas ). LNG is increasingly a vital part of World Fuel Mix and Hamworthy is the world leader in this market. On land, it has developed a technology that traps gases released during the development of oil and gas fields.Hamworthy is also the world leader in the provision of desalination systems for cruise ships. stock for a sit down. "